Truckload Rates Are Going Way Up. Are You Ready?

10/31/2017 — PartnerShip

Truckload shipping costs have been steadily climbing and are poised to go even higher because a perfect storm of events is pushing truckload rates to record highs: the looming Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandate; the cleanup and aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria; and an already significant driver shortage that has stressed truckload capacity.

Let’s look at these factors one by one.

ELDs
An ELD is electronic hardware that connects to a truck’s engine to automatically log a driver’s hours of service (HOS) and fleets and owner-operators have until December 18th, 2017 to implement them. In a previous blog post on ELDs, we anticipated that ELDs would have an effect on pricing and freight rates caused by decreased productivity and reduced capacity.

• Decreased productivity. Carriers that have implemented ELDs have reported average productivity decreases of approximately 15%. ELDs track drive-time so drivers can no longer log 400 miles when they actually drove 700.

• Reduced capacity. Some owner-operators will leave the industry because of their loss of productivity and the associated loss of income, further reducing truckload capacity.

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria
These three hurricanes hit the US within a four-week span and left massive destruction and flooding behind. These hurricanes have had a significant impact on truckload capacity. Recovery efforts required immediate emergency supplies and aid, which shifted truckload capacity to the affected areas, leaving other parts of the country with much less capacity. As recovery and rebuilding continues, truckload capacity will continue to be reduced.

Existing driver shortage
This issue has been building for years. Drivers are leaving the industry as they retire or move on, and younger people are not entering the industry to replace them. The driver shortage causes truckload capacity to tighten, which pushes rates higher and higher. According to Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations, “We may be seeing the beginnings of a significant tightening of the driver market.” At large truckload fleets, driver turnover in the second quarter of 2017 jumped 16 percentage points to 90%; for small fleets, it was up 19 points to 85%.

This combination of factors has led to the tightest truckload spot market in at least four years and freight brokers are working hard to obtain truckload capacity for shippers, but be prepared, rates are going up with no end in sight.

According to Logistics Management, experts expect the current stressed capacity situation to continue well into 2018 partially because of the productivity loss that is expected from the ELD mandate. If you’re a shipper, you should probably prepare your company management to expect higher transportation costs for the next 12 to 18 months.

During the last week of September, the number of available loads on the truckload freight spot market jumped 5.4%, the number of available trucks dropped 3.2%, and tight capacity sent the load-to-truck ratio into uncharted territory, according to DAT Solutions.

DAT said load-to-truck ratios were higher for all equipment types:

• Dry van: 7.0 loads per truck, up 10%
• Flatbed: 50.2 loads per truck, up 16%
• Refrigerated: 12.4 loads per truck, up 2%

DAT said average truckload spot rates continue to remain at two-year highs and demand for truckload capacity in September was up 15% from August, and up 80% from September 2016.

Here’s the takeaway: you will be paying more for truckload freight and it will be harder to cover your loads.

When rates go up and capacity tightens, shippers tend to look for help and reach out to freight brokers and third-party logistics companies to tap into their network of carriers, and take advantage of their expertise in truckload pricing and rate negotiation. The shipping experts at PartnerShip will work with you to cover your loads and secure the best truckload freight rate possible. We know the lanes, we know the rates and we will help you ship smarter. Contact us today to get a free quote on your next truckload freight shipment!